La República Catalana

News Comment/COMENTARI AL DIA

At Risk USA, UK, Spain/USA, REGNE UNIT I ESPANYA EN RISC

At Risk USA, UK, Spain

by Josep C. Verges

Opening bell at the City of London?: American-owned and Italian-run Concordia underwater. Below: The black line of total UK debt has spiralled out of control while the other developed economies keep in a close pack.

 

Who is most at risk? London and New York-based speculators attack the weakened euro. In fact UK debt is much worse and the pound is the Concordia of currencies, on a rocky shelf slipping any moment into deep waters.

 

Government and consumer debt have always been lower in Spain. In the year 2000 six points lower than America and three below Britain. By the crash of 2008, which started with the British Northern Rock bank and American Lehman Brothers, Spanish government and consumer debt had increased by 24 points, but American by 44 and English by 45 points. Debt continued to rise up to 2011. Counting bank and business debt, America is still better off than Spain, owing 279% of GDP to Spain’s 363%, but Britain today owes an unsustainable 507% of GDP. Consumer debt has fallen everywhere but government debt continues out of control, rising 19 points with Obama. The shrinking of Spanish socialists to insignificance should be a stark warning, given Zapatero increased government spending by 24 points. Spain has no printing press unlike America or Britain, but real adjustments may be a better way forward than speculators’ bets.

Public debt/GDP 2011: USA 80%, UK 81%, Spain 71%

Consumer debt/ GDP 2011: USA 87%, UK 98%, Spain 82%

Total debt/GDP 2011: USA 279%, UK 507%, Spain 363%

(Debt and Deleveraging: Uneven Progress on the Path to Growth, by Charles Roxburgh et al., McKinsey Global Institute, January 2012)

 

USA, Regne Unit i Espanya en risc

per Josep C. Vergés

 

La línia negra del deute total anglès puja descontrolada mentre les altres economies desenvolupades es mantenen ben agrupades. Primera foto: Campana d’obertura a la City de Londres?: El Concordia de propietat americana i gestió italiana sota aigua.

 

Qui es troba més en risc? Els especuladors basats a Londres i Nova York ataquen el debilitat euro, però de fet, el deute del Regne Unit és molt pitjor i la lliura esterlina una divisa Concòrdia, en una plataforma rocosa a punt de caure en aigües profundes.

 

El deute públic i dels consumidors sempre ha estat inferior a Espanya. L’any 2000, sis punts menys que els Estats Units i tres per sota de la Gran Bretanya. Arribada la crisi de 2008, que va començar amb el banc britànic Northern Rock i Lehman Brothers americà, el deute espanyol públic i del consumidor havia augmentat en 24 punts, però l’americà 44 i l’anglès 45 punts. El deute ha seguit augmentant fins 2011. Comptant el deute bancari i empresarial, Estats Units segueix sent millor que Espanya, deu el 279% contra 363% Espanya, però en aquests moments Gran Bretanya deu un insostenible 507% del PIB. El deute dels consumidors ha caigut a tot arreu, però el deute públic continua fora de control, augmentant 19 punts amb Obama. La caiguda a la insignificància dels socialistes espanyols ha de ser una severa advertència, donat que Zapatero va augmentar la despesa pública 24 punts. Espanya no té una impremta a diferència d’Estats Units o Gran Bretanya, però un ajust real sembla una millor manera d’avançar que les apostes dels especuladors.

Deute públic/PIB 2011: USA 80%, Regne Unit 81%, Espanya 71%

Deute consumidors/PIB 2011: USA 87%, Regne Unit 98%, Espanya 82%

Deute total/PIB 2011: USA 279%, Regne Unit 507%, Espanya 363%

(Debt and Deleveraging: Uneven Progress on the Path to Growth, per Charles Roxburgh et al., McKinsey Global Institute, gener 2012)

23 January 2012 - Posted by | Economy/Economia |

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